Will Higher Interest Rates Kill HOME SALES?

The Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are each projecting mortgage interest rates to increase substantially over the next twelve months. What will that mean to the housing market in 2015?
Last week, we posted a graph showing that home prices appreciated each of the last four times mortgage interest rates dramatically increased. Today, we want to talk about the impact higher rates might have on the number of home sales.
The reason many experts are calling for a rise in rates is because they see a stabilizing economy. With the economy beginning to improve, they expect the employment situation to regain some ground lost during the recession, incomes to grow and for consumer confidence to improve.

What will that mean to home sales next year?

In its November 2014 U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook, Freddie Mac explains:

“While higher interest rates generally detract from housing activity, when they occur with strong job and income growth the net result can be increases in household formations, construction, and home sales. Our view for 2015 is exactly that, namely, income and job growth offset the negative effect of higher interest rates and translate into gains for the nation’s housing market.”

Bottom Line

Even with mortgage rates increasing, home sales and home appreciation should be just fine in 2015.

Confusing Real Estate News? An Agent Can Help

Below are the headlines from three separate news releases issued over a one month period:

11/3/2014 - Millions of Potential New Households Waiting Out the Recovery

11/11/2014 - Experts: First-Time Homebuyers' Weak Finances Holding Back Housing Market

And then, the contrarian view:

12/2/2014 - In 2015, Millennials Will Be Biggest Home Buying Group

It sure seems that the group that released the first two stories emphatically disagrees with the organization that published the last news release.
Amazingly, the same entity published all three reports. What?
It seems the company (a well-respected provider of housing information) reported that those forming new households are not looking to buy a home. They actually surveyed over one hundred housing experts who agreed. But 30 days later, they reported that millennials (most new households) will be the biggest group of home buyers this year. All in one month!!
All the headlines could actually be true. However, a consumer reading them might be misled. This is evidence of how difficult it is to actually understand the intricacies of today’s housing market. Even the experts can seem confused.

Bottom Line

If you are thinking of either buying or selling a home, it is probably best to engage a local real estate professional to help you successfully navigate the ins-and-outs of today’s real estate transaction.
Later today, we will be hosting a webinar titled 3 Ways to Guarantee Success in 2015 which will cover this issue in more depth. You can reserve your seat here.

Will an Increase in Interest Rates Crush Home Prices?

There are some who are calling for a substantial drop in home prices should mortgage interest rates begin to rise rapidly. Intuitively that makes sense. The cost of a home is determined by the price of the home and the price of financing that home. If mortgage interest rates increase, less people will be able to buy. The logic says prices will fall if demand decreases.
However, history shows us that this has not been the case the last four times mortgage interest rates dramatically increased.

Here is a graph showing what actually did happen:

We will have to wait and see what happens as we move forward. But, a fall in prices should rates go up is not guaranteed.

-source KCM-

Sales Up in almost Every Price Range

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The National Association of Realtors’ most recent Existing Home Sales Report revealed that home sales were up rather dramatically over last year in five of the six price ranges they measure. Only those homes priced under $100,000 showed a decline (-6%). Every other category showed a minimum increase of at least 9.7%.

Here is the breakdown:

What does that mean to you if you are selling?

Houses are definitely selling. If your house has been on the market for any length of time and has not yet sold, perhaps it is time to sit with your agent and see if it is priced appropriately to compete in today’s market.

-Soruce NAR-